March 05, 2011
from vdare.com
from vdare.com
February Jobs: Statistical Noise, Better Data, Long-Run American Worker Displacement Continues
Non-farm payrolls rose by 192,000 in February, the fastest pace since May according to the Labor Department. But Wall Street was expecting even more robust growth—and, in fact, got it if you accept the less-widely publicized employment survey.
We refer, of course, to the survey of households rather than businesses. Exactly 250,000 new positions were created last month according to that survey—but in a radical departure from the long-term trend, Hispanic workers lost ground to non-Hispanics:
In February 2011:
- Total employment: rose 250,000 (+0.2 percent)
- Hispanic employment: fell 193,000 (-0.9 percent)
- Non-Hispanic employment: rose 437,000 (+0.4 percent)
Accordingly, VDARE.COM’s American Worker Displacement Index (VDAWDI) fell to 125.6 in February from the record 127.2 reached in January.
February Jobs: Statistical Noise, Better Data, Long-Run American Worker Displacement Continues
Non-farm payrolls rose by 192,000 in February, the fastest pace since May according to the Labor Department. But Wall Street was expecting even more robust growth—and, in fact, got it if you accept the less-widely publicized employment survey.
We refer, of course, to the survey of households rather than businesses. Exactly 250,000 new positions were created last month according to that survey—but in a radical departure from the long-term trend, Hispanic workers lost ground to non-Hispanics:
In February 2011:
- Total employment: rose 250,000 (+0.2 percent)
- Hispanic employment: fell 193,000 (-0.9 percent)
- Non-Hispanic employment: rose 437,000 (+0.4 percent)
Accordingly, VDARE.COM’s American Worker Displacement Index (VDAWDI) fell to 125.6 in February from the record 127.2 reached in January.
Statistical noise? Of course. Since the official end of the recession in June 2009 non-Hispanics have lost 1.2 million jobs while Hispanics have gained 490,000 positions.
- For every 1,000 Hispanics employed in June 2009 there were 1,015 employed in February 2011.
- For every 1,000 non-Hispanics employed in June 2009 there were 997 employed in February 2011
As VDARE.com readers know, our focus on Hispanic job growth is rooted in necessity rather than choice. Our interest is immigration, and Hispanics are disproportionately foreign-born. They are a convenient (if conservative) proxy. Back in 2004, when we unveiled VDAWDI, data on foreign-born workers was only published annually.
Early in 2010, the Federal government mysteriously did begin publishing monthly foreign-born data—but not in a seasonally-adjusted format, making month to month comparisons difficult.
But we do now have the very telling year-to-year comparisons of foreign- and native-born employment in the monthly Department of Labor report. IT confirms the long-run displacement trend:
Employment Status by Nativity, Feb. 2010-Feb. 2011 (numbers in 1000s; not seasonally adjusted) | ||||
Feb-10 | Feb-11 | Change | % Change | |
Foreign born, 16 years and older | ||||
Civilian population | 35,315 | 36,026 | 711 | 2.0% |
Civilian labor force | 23,854 | 23,958 | 104 | 0.4% |
Employed | 21,102 | 21,614 | 512 | 2.4% |
Employment/population ratio | 59.8 | 60.0 | 0.2 | 0.3% |
Unemployment rate (%) | 11.5 | 9.8 | -1.7 | -14.8% |
Not in labor force | 11,461 | 12,068 | 607 | 5.3% |
Native born, 16 years and older | ||||
Civilian population | 201,683 | 202,825 | 1,142 | 0.6% |
Civilian labor force | 129,341 | 128,676 | -665 | -0.5% |
Employed | 116,102 | 116,478 | 376 | 0.3% |
Employment/population ratio | 57.6 | 57.4 | -0.2 | -0.3% |
Unemployment rate (%) | 10.2 | 9.5 | -0.7 | -6.9% |
Not in labor force | 72,342 | 74,148 | 1,806 | 2.5% |
Source: BLS, "The Employment Situation - February 2011," March 4, 2011. Table A-7. PDF | ||||
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