National Data, By Edwin S. Rubenstein

April 4, 2011 By Edwin S. Rubenstein

March Jobs: Displacement Resumes—Americans Now Driven From Labor Force Completely

     According to the Payroll Survey, payrolls increased by 216,000 in March, exceeding the consensus forecast. At 8.8%, the unemployment rate is the lowest since March 2009 and a full percentage point below where it was last November. The parallel Household Survey, which has regularly been more optimistic, probably because it picks up illegal immigrant employment, showed as usual somewhat lower unemployment.

     The Household Survey also contains ethnicity data. Hispanics are disproportionately foreign-born, so they are a convenient (if conservative) proxy  for immigrant displacement of American-born workers. Back in 2004, when we unveiled VDAWDI, data on foreign-born workers was only published annually.

     Displacement been dramatic and it’s continuing. Thus Hispanics garnered most of last month’s Household Survey job growth. In March 2011:

• Total employment: rose 291,000 (+0.21 percent)
• Hispanic employment: rose 193,000 (0.97 percent)
• Non-Hispanic employment: rose 98,000 (+0.08 percent)

     Accordingly, VDARE.COM’s American Worker Displacement Index (VDAWDI) spiked to 126.7 in March from the 125.6 reading reached in January.

Since the official end of the recession in June 2009 non-Hispanics have lost 670,000 jobs while Hispanics have gained 496,000 positions.

• For every 1,000 Hispanics employed in June 2009 there were 1,025 employed in March 2011.
• For every 1,000 non-Hispanics employed in June 2009 there were 994 employed in March 2011.

But there is a dark side to lower unemployment rates. While the unemployed share of U.S. labor force has declined, the labor force itself has also declined. It has shrunk steadily over the past few years, to a point where just 64.2% of adults are either in the work force or looking for a job. That is the lowest labor participation rate in a quarter-century. [Looking Ahead to the Jobs Report, By Michael Powell, New York Times, March 31, 2011]

Workers leave the labor force when they lose confidence in their ability to find gainful employment. They enter the labor force when job prospects appear to brighten.

Early in 2010, the Federal government mysteriously did begin publishing monthly foreign-born employment data—but not in a seasonally-adjusted format, making month to month comparisons difficult. But this new data does leave little doubt about what is happening to native-born and immigrant labor forces:

Employment Status by Nativity, March 2010-March 2011
(numbers in 1000s; not seasonally adjusted)
	Mar-10	Mar-11	Change	% Change
	Foreign born, 16 years and older
Civilian population	34,991	35,996	1,005	2.9%
Civilian labor force	23,855	24,034	179	0.8%
Employed	21,239	21,728	489	2.3%
Employment/population ratio	60.7	60.4	-0.3	-0.5%
Unemployment rate (%)	11.0	9.6	-1.4	-12.7%
Not in labor force	11,136	11,961	825	7.4%
	Native born, 16 years and older
Civilian population	202,168	203,004	836	0.4%
Civilian labor force	129,805	128,988	-817	-0.6%
Employed	116,743	117,234	491	0.4%
Employment/population ratio	64.2	63.5	-0.7	-1.1%
Unemployment rate (%)	10.1	9.1	-1.0	-9.9%
Not in labor force	72,363	74,016	1,653	2.3%
Source: BLS, "The Employment Situation - March 2011", April 1, 2011. Table A-7.  Over the past 12 months: http://vdare.com/rubenstein/110404_nd.htm